Where inflation is heading
Year-on-year inflation, national, % — the last year published by GSS, then the forecast. Hover or tap for any month.
The same forecast with the cedi added, scored beside it
Most of the change is last year dropping out
This forecast can't be changed after the fact
It was written to a file before GSS published any of these months, and the file's SHA-256 fingerprint was recorded. Download it and run shasum -a 256 on it: if the result matches, it is the forecast as made. It will be scored against the first figure GSS publishes for each month, so a later revision can't flatter it.
Every forecast, against what GSS then published
Small models, and a rule for picking one
Inflation h months ahead is the index then over the index a year before it, and that second number is already published. So the models only forecast the monthly price changes between now and the target; the year-on-year rate follows by arithmetic. The models were fixed, and so was the rule that picks one: .
How each model would have done since 2010
Root mean squared error of the year-on-year forecast, percentage points; in brackets, origins from January 2023 only. Lower is better; the best in each column is in bold.